A key object in sequential simulation is the sequence of distributions, called the policy, fromwhich togenerate therandom variables, called particles, usedtoapproximate theintegralsof interest.

AIS is asymptotically optimal, i.e., learning the sampling policy has no cost asymptotically.

Mutual information (MI) is one of the most general ways to measure relationships between random variables, but estimating this quantity for complex systems is challenging. Denoising diffusion models have recently set a new bar for density estimation, so it is natural to consider whether these methods could also be used to improve MI estimation. Using the recently introduced information-theoretic formulation of denoising diffusion models, we show the diffusion models can be used in a straightforward way to estimate MI. In particular, the MI corresponds to half the gap in the Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE) between conditional and unconditional diffusion, integrated over all Signal-to-Noise-Ratios (SNRs) in the noising process. Our approach not only passes self-consistency tests but also outperforms traditional and score-based diffusion MI estimators. Furthermore, our method leverages adaptive importance sampling to achieve scalable MI estimation, while maintaining strong performance even when the MI is high.

Thank you for a detailed review. In terms of content however, we believe that our contributions have been mischaracterized. Q: "The contributions of the paper are very close from the one of [12]" They use a generic probabilistic bound at the core of their analysis, we use the specific dynamics of SGD/SGLD. Furthermore, our assumptions do no imply any of the path-length assumptions in [18]. Reviewer #6: Thank you for an in-depth read of our paper.

For safety, autonomous systems must be able to consider sudden changes and enact contingency plans appropriately. State-of-the-art methods currently find trajectories that balance between nominal and contingency behavior, or plan for a singular contingency plan; however, this does not guarantee that the resulting plan is safe for all time. To address this research gap, this paper presents Contingency-MPPI, a data-driven optimization-based strategy that embeds contingency planning inside a nominal planner. By learning to approximate the optimal contingency-constrained control sequence with adaptive importance sampling, the proposed method's sampling efficiency is further improved with initializations from a lightweight path planner and trajectory optimizer.

The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance point process to the family of homogeneous Poisson point processes, which enables us to generate quickly independent samples of the importance point process. The optimal intensity of the importance point process is found by applying the cross-entropy minimization method. In the proposed scheme, the expected value of the function and the optimal intensity are iteratively estimated in an adaptive manner. We show that the proposed estimator converges to the target value almost surely, and prove the asymptotic normality of it. We explain how to apply the proposed scheme to the estimation of the intensity of a stationary pairwise interaction point process. The performance of the proposed scheme is compared numerically with the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and the perfect sampling.

We introduce a set of gradient-flow-guided adaptive importance sampling (IS) transformations to stabilize Monte-Carlo approximations of point-wise leave one out cross-validated (LOO) predictions for Bayesian classification models. One can leverage this methodology for assessing model generalizability by for instance computing a LOO analogue to the AIC or computing LOO ROC/PRC curves and derived metrics like the AUROC and AUPRC. By the calculus of variations and gradient flow, we derive two simple nonlinear single-step transformations that utilize gradient information to shift a model's pre-trained full-data posterior closer to the target LOO posterior predictive distributions. In doing so, the transformations stabilize importance weights. Because the transformations involve the gradient of the likelihood function, the resulting Monte Carlo integral depends on Jacobian determinants with respect to the model Hessian. We derive closed-form exact formulae for these Jacobian determinants in the cases of logistic regression and shallow ReLU-activated artificial neural networks, and provide a simple approximation that sidesteps the need to compute full Hessian matrices and their spectra. We test the methodology on an $n\ll p$ dataset that is known to produce unstable LOO IS weights.

We introduce an adaptive sampling method for the Deep Ritz method aimed at solving partial differential equations (PDEs). Two deep neural networks are used. One network is employed to approximate the solution of PDEs, while the other one is a deep generative model used to generate new collocation points to refine the training set. The adaptive sampling procedure consists of two main steps. The first step is solving the PDEs using the Deep Ritz method by minimizing an associated variational loss discretized by the collocation points in the training set. The second step involves generating a new training set, which is then used in subsequent computations to further improve the accuracy of the current approximate solution. We treat the integrand in the variational loss as an unnormalized probability density function (PDF) and approximate it using a deep generative model called bounded KRnet. The new samples and their associated PDF values are obtained from the bounded KRnet. With these new samples and their associated PDF values, the variational loss can be approximated more accurately by importance sampling. Compared to the original Deep Ritz method, the proposed adaptive method improves accuracy, especially for problems characterized by low regularity and high dimensionality. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our new method through a series of numerical experiments.